[Prostate adenocarcinoma. Predictive clinical model of seminal vesicle involvement].

OBJECTIVES Our aim is to design a predictive model of seminal vesicle involvement. using clinical data. METHODS We studied 1128 patients with clinically localized adenocarcinoma treated by radical prostatectomy (127 were pT3b). We identified (logistic regression) clinical variables related with pT3b. With the multivariate study influential variables a seminal vesicle involvement risk model is designed. RESULTS Seminal vesicle involvement related factors: In univariate study: the influential variables are: Gleason 7 (OR:2);Gleason 8-10 (OR:4.5) T2 (OR:2.6); bilateral involvement in biopsy (OR:3.1); PSA 10-20 ng/ml ( OR:3.3); PSA >20 ng/ ml (OR:9.5). In the multivariate study are influential: Gleason 7 (OR:1.56) Gleason 8-10 ( OR: 3.4); T2 (OR:1.9); PSA 10-20 ng/ml (OR:3.1) and PSA >20 ng/,ml (OR:8.8). Predictive model: using multivariate logistic regression the weight of each variable is valued and a value between 1 and 4 is given. Gleason 2-6, T1; PSA<10 ng/ml value 1; Gleason 7; T2 y PSA 10-20 ng/ml value 2; Gleason 8-10 and PSA >20 ng/ml value 4. Each patient has a marker that fluctuates between 3 and 10. 5 Groups are designed with significantly different risks (p<0.05 in all cases ): Group 1 (3 points) (OR:1) (risk: 2.4% 95%IC 0.7%-4.3%) Group 2 (4 points) (OR:2.7) (risk: 6.5% 95%IC 5%-7.9%); Group 3(5-6 points) (OR:7.1)( risk:15% 95%IC 11%-19%) Group 4 ( 7--8 points) (OR:33.4) (risk: 45.5%; 95%IC 30%-59%) Group 5 (9-10 points) (OR:57.3) (risk: 58.8% 95%IC 35%- 82%). CONCLUSION The clinical model allows an accurate approximation to the seminal vesicles involvement risk.